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Old 01-21-2013, 05:24 AM   #21
JimDawson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avedas
if you want to solve for y you'll need to use logarithms, then it's quite simple.

x = 440*2^(y/12)
log x = log 440*2^(y/12)
log x = log 440 + (y/12)log 2
(log x - log 440)*12/log 2 = y


I have no idea what you just said, but I already know how to use that formula.

It's used to figure out the pitch in Hz (x) of a certain amount of semitones (y) higher or lower than A4. For example, if y was three C5 (x) = 523.25... Hz.

I'll have to admit defeat on this one; I don't have the knowledge required to figure out the probability with more than one draw. Looks like I have some studying to do.
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Last edited by JimDawson : 01-21-2013 at 05:41 AM.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:41 AM   #22
Neo Evil11
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Originally Posted by SlackerBabbath
Knowing the odds is one thing, being lucky enough that the odds work in your favour or knowing how to manipulate the odds are both something else entirely.

Why do you always ruin our ignorant fun? You're like the Grinch who stole Ignorance.
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I can't believe you are whoring yourself out like that.

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Old 01-21-2013, 05:42 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo Evil11
Why do you always ruin our ignorant fun? You're like the Grinch who stole Ignorance.

He's a menace really. Needs to be shackled in to the R+P thread.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:44 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by willT08
He's a menace really. Needs to be shackled in to the R+P thread.

Which Yu-gi-oh card will help us with that? Calculate me the odds of drawing that, NOW!
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I can't believe you are whoring yourself out like that.

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Old 01-21-2013, 05:48 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo Evil11
Why do you always ruin our ignorant fun? You're like the Grinch who stole Ignorance.

sorry.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:51 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by SlackerBabbath
sorry.



I shackle you to the live free or die erect thread.
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I can't believe you are whoring yourself out like that.

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Old 01-21-2013, 05:58 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Neo Evil11


I shackle you to the live free or die erect thread.


Didn't work.... I ducked.
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:01 AM   #28
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Didn't work.... I ducked.

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I can't believe you are whoring yourself out like that.

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Old 01-21-2013, 06:07 AM   #29
JimDawson
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I don't know how TC is going to get practical use out of this, but I'm just having fun figuring out some math.

Actually, if you get a statistic in your favour (>50%) all you need to do is repeat your number of tries over and over for it to work out for you. Kind of creepy, but it actually works with less tries than you would think.

Just get a die, pick a number, and start rolling. With a six-sided die you should quickly see your actual statistic of getting your number hovers around the 16.666...% mark and generally gets more accurate with more rolls.

EDIT: Works better the higher your probability is; like if you picked four numbers on a six-sided die you should quickly see you statistic of "winning" hovers around 66.666...% and gets more accurate with more tries.
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:08 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by JimDawson
I don't know how TC is going to get practical use out of this, but I'm just having fun figuring out some math.

Actually, if you get a statistic in your favour (>50%) all you need to do is repeat your number of tries over and over for it to work out for you. Kind of creepy, but it actually works with less tries than you would think.

Just get a dice, pick a number, and start rolling. With a six-sided dice you should quickly see your actual statistic of getting your number hovers around the 16.666...% mark and generally gets more accurate with more rolls.

Aren't you now falling for the gambler's fallacy?
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:11 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo Evil11
Aren't you now falling for the gambler's fallacy?


Nope, just real math. It's silly to gamble with math like this.

EDIT: Because before you get enough tries in for it to start levelling out you could be in the hole. If your chances are higher, it works out much faster than betting small amounts over and over again on 16 at the roulette wheel. In roulette, your payout isn't even equal to the actual odds anyway.
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:21 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by JimDawson
Nope, just real math. It's silly to gamble with math like this.

EDIT: Because before you get enough tries in for it to start levelling out you could be in the hole. If your chances are higher, it works out much faster than betting small amounts over and over again on 16 at the roulette wheel. In roulette, your payout isn't even equal to the actual odds anyway.

Sorry, it sounded more like you were saying that with more tries the outcome you want becomes more likely.
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:23 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo Evil11
Sorry, it sounded more like you were saying that with more tries the outcome you want becomes more likely.


Not at all, you just need to read closer.

It's less erratic if you use a range of numbers and dice with more sides; like using a percentile and selecting numbers 1-50. (two 0's is 100 if you are using two ten sided dice.)

With more rolls, your statistics should get closer and closer to 50%.
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Gaza Strip- home. At least it was before I ****ed ereythang up...

Last edited by JimDawson : 01-21-2013 at 06:28 AM.
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Old 01-21-2013, 06:58 AM   #34
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i got 50% chance

(8/40)/(32/40)/3 x 6?
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Old 01-21-2013, 07:01 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Neo Evil11
Sorry, it sounded more like you were saying that with more tries the outcome you want becomes more likely.

thats why we play 12 rounds of swiss matches. consistency is everything. youre only allowed 3 of most cards some 2 some none, so iv managed to use psuedo versions to make my deck only consist of 5 different sets of 8 cards. basic combos need 2 pairs, game winning ones 3. but thats without ersponse from the opponent, so i have 2/5 used for killing their shit. i want 1 of each in every opening hand and id be happy all day.
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Old 01-21-2013, 07:40 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by JimDawson
Not at all, you just need to read closer.

It's less erratic if you use a range of numbers and dice with more sides; like using a percentile and selecting numbers 1-50. (two 0's is 100 if you are using two ten sided dice.)

With more rolls, your statistics should get closer and closer to 50%.

But how does it help him to know that throwing a dice the probability of throwing a 6 gets close to 1/6 in the long run? All very true, but how does it help in a card game? There are much more different groups he has to draw from, and I doubt he can create a deck that gives him a win with >50% preset probability.
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Old 01-21-2013, 07:54 AM   #37
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its not auto win, its basically if my opponent has nothing to stop me win. but i have imput on whether or not they have impact on my play. not much but enough to turn that 50% into a best 2/3 match win at least.
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Old 01-21-2013, 07:58 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by jrcsgtpeppers
its not auto win, its basically if my opponent has nothing to stop me win. but i have imput on whether or not they have impact on my play. not much but enough to turn that 50% into a best 2/3 match win at least.

But do you know their deck? Otherwise it will be a very complicated procedure to calculate it for all the cards available and all the possible combinations. I don't think you can have 1 deck per se with a very high probability of winning.
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Old 01-21-2013, 08:14 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrcsgtpeppers
40 cards
8 red 8 blue 8 green 8 yellow 8 purple

i get to draw 6 cards and keep them all in my hand

what are the odds of drawing AT LEAST 1 red?
odds of drawing at least 1 red and 1 blue
odds of drawing at least 1 red 1 blue and 1 green

thats about as much as i need to know.

thanks if anyone shows me how its done. stats are harder thani thought.


Probability of drawing no reds is (32/40)*(31/39)*(30/38)*etc

So 1 minus that is the probability of drawing at least 1 red

You can use similar logic for the others
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Old 01-21-2013, 08:18 AM   #40
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Edit: Basically ^that, but in a more convoluted way. If you understood that, there's no reason to read this, if not this might help (I'm not guaranteeing anything, though )
/edit

Well, unless I'm wrong, the chance should be 76.4%, 96.5% and 97.9%.

Basically, since the events are so likely to take place it's easier to find the likelihood that they don't take place and subtract that from one (or 100% in this case).
So you want to find the odds of not getting any reds in the first example, which is
32/40 * 31/39 * 30/38 * 29/37 * 28/36 * 27/35:
The chance of the first card not being red is 32/40, however, for the second card you're assuming you've already drawn a non-red card, so the chance of it being non-red is (32-1)/(40-1), and so forth. What you get in the end is the chance of not getting any reds, thus all other events must contain at least one red, so you just subtract this chance of not getting any reds from the total chance of any outcome (1/100%, whatever) and get the chance of drawing at least one red card.
You repeat the process in the other scenarios, but replacing 32 with 24 and 16.

There's probably a much nicer way to express this mathematically, but I think it should be correct.

Last edited by lncognito : 01-21-2013 at 08:19 AM.
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