Poll: Do you switch?
Poll Options
View poll results: Do you switch?
Yes, because...
47 68%
No, because...
22 32%
Voters: 69.
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#1
You're on a game show where you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?


...What did you think this thread was about?

EDIT: Try to solve it without looking it up.
Last edited by beadhangingOne at Mar 12, 2013,
#4
No. Him showing you what's being behind door #3 doesn't change what's behind the other two.
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#5
I pick door 3 because I wanted a goat to begin with.
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#7
No, because I took stats in college.

edit: and i love goats
Last edited by Faux at Mar 12, 2013,
#8
Quote by Faux
No, because I took stats in college.


Would anything change if I were to say that the host isn't going to open the door with the car behind it?

(There's no reason for him to, would totally defeat the purpose of him asking you if you want to change doors)

This was the key piece of information not given in the original problem.
#12
yes because basic education
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#14
Switch...


That's not really that hard, is it?
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#16
Yes you change because I have read this before and it seems like it's just as much change as your first choice but it's not.

I can't remember exactly how.
#18
yes because i love probability theory
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#19
Quote by Wiki
To help explain why people thought that the probability of winning both sticking and switching was equal, vos Savant asked readers to consider the case where a little green woman emerges on stage from a UFO at the point that the player has to decide which door to choose, and the host asks the little green woman to point to one of the two unopened doors. In that case, vos Savant points out, the chances that she’ll randomly choose the door with the prize are 1/2, but that is because she lacks the information that a player would have from seeing how the two doors were chosen.

People who come up with these problems must be on acid.
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#21
Yes.

inb4 people who don't understand probability
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#22
Yes because Monty Hall Problem.
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#23
Math ain't one of my strong points but you have a 33% chance at the start. Then with one option taken away you're given another choice of which door to choose so thats 50%. What makes one door more likely to have the car than the other?

#25
Quote by Rebel Scum
Math ain't one of my strong points but you have a 33% chance at the start. Then with one option taken away you're given another choice of which door to choose so thats 50%. What makes one door more likely to have the car than the other?


You have a 1 in 3 chance to start with, then the other two options are condensed into once meaning changing represents 2 of the 3 options, so changing is 2/3.


Not changing only gets you the car if you chose right at first (ie not changing only wins 1 in 3 times) whereas changing will get you the car if you chose wrong first (ie 2 out of 3 possibilities).
#32
Quote by Rebel Scum
Math ain't one of my strong points but you have a 33% chance at the start. Then with one option taken away you're given another choice of which door to choose so thats 50%. What makes one door more likely to have the car than the other?


There's a table on the wiki page that demonstrates why

You are more likely To pick a goat on the first run so it's more beneficial to switch once another goat is revealed
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Last edited by Cianyx at Mar 12, 2013,
#33
Quote by Rebel Scum
Math ain't one of my strong points but you have a 33% chance at the start. Then with one option taken away you're given another choice of which door to choose so thats 50%. What makes one door more likely to have the car than the other?


Its a mind**** but basically there's three possible scenarios: car is behind door 1, 2, or 3. If you choose door 1 and switched then you'd have made the wrong decision. However, in either other cases choosing door 2, and the host reveals the goat in door 3 and vice versa, switching choices would lead to the car. So a success rate of 66% rather then the initial 33%
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#34
^^ Yeah that table explains everything as well as Mad Clowns explanation. Cheers.
#36
Quote by Rebel Scum
^^ Yeah that table explains everything as well as Mad Clowns explanation. Cheers.

Good good, glad to hear it.


I thought it sounded so ridiculous and paradoxical at first, but really it can be explained perfectly well in one sentence.

Changing is the best choice if you chose wrong to start with, and there is a 2/3 chance you did get it wrong to start with, therefore changing gives you a 2/3 chance of winning by changing.


The wiki gives another good example. If there was a million doors and you chose door #377,898 for example, then the gameshow host goes and opens every door apart from #865,222, revealing goats behind each one, you'd be stupid not to change immediately. Sticking would only be best if you were right to start with (a 1 in a million chance), whereas the door he leaves would have the car in 999,999 out of a million cases.
#37
No because I already own a car but I don't own a goat and I want a goat.
#38
its pretty obvious really that its yes, but I remember some students doing this as a "maths demonstration" at a (poor) university open day and I chose not to switch, and won the car.

demonstration successfully trolled, much to the crowds amusement lol.
#39
i would just do my goat call and pick the door that isnt being rammed down

its quite simple actually, you guys are dumb
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