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#1
“I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel,” said Lucey, a physician and professor from Georgetown University who is halfway through a five-week tour in Liberia with Medecins Sans Frontieres, the medical charity known in English as Doctors Without Borders. “The epidemic is still getting worse,” he said by phone between shifts.

[...]

MSF has been the first -- and often only -- line of defense against Ebola in West Africa. The group raised the alarm on March 31, months ahead of the World Health Organization. Now, after treating almost a third of the roughly 9,000 confirmed Ebola cases in Africa -- and faced with a WHO warning of perhaps 10,000 new infections a week by December -- MSF is reaching its limits.

“They are at the breaking point,” said Vinh-Kim Nguyen, a professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Montreal who has volunteered for a West African tour with MSF in a few weeks. MSF has already seen 21 workers infected and 12 people die, and “there’s a sense that there’s a major wave of infections that’s about to wash everything away,” Nguyen said.

[...]
On March 23, the WHO posted the confirmation on its website. A week later, MSF issued a statement citing eight cases in Conakry and calling the outbreak unprecedented. The WHO didn’t declare Ebola an international public health emergency until Aug. 8, more than four months after MSF’s warning.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-19/ebola-front-line-doctors-at-breaking-point.html

tl;dr first and thus far only line of defence saying shit's ****ed on a whole different level
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#2
Based on my knowledge of video game simulators involving deadly spreads of virus, i'd close all the borders.
Most of the important things


in the world have been accomplished


by people who have kept on


trying when there seemed to be no hope at all
#3
aren't there like 5 ebola threads so far already?
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#4
The CDC team’s widely reported worst case projection of 1.4 million cases by 20 January was based on the correction factor of 2.5, and assuming control efforts didn’t improve. It included only Liberia and Sierra Leone; in Guinea, the reported numbers of cases have fluctuated too much to make a reasonable projection, Meltzer says, which could also could be partly due to underreporting.

What does WHO think is a reasonable correction factor?

WHO hasn't published an estimate. “It's a point that has been greatly discussed but there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty,” Dye says. For its internal planning purposes, however, WHO uses a correction factor of 2.0. When WHO’s Bruce Aylward said at a press conference last week that the agency is expecting to see between 5000 and 10,000 cases per week by early December, “the difference between the 5000 and the 10,000 is that factor of two,” Dye says. A correction factor of 2.0 would mean that the total number of cases has now crossed 18,000 and the number of deaths 9000.



http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/10/how-many-ebola-cases-are-there-really

Quote by Nelshizzle
Based on my knowledge of video game simulators involving deadly spreads of virus, i'd close all the borders.

Not gonna stop birds dropping from the sky en masse
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#5
Nigeria is officially Ebola free so I don't think it's much of a problem if they can get rid of it.

longing rusted furnace daybreak seventeen benign nine homecoming one freight car
#7
There are still only 3 countries in the entire world in which Ebola is a major issue and none of those places are known for having amazing healthcare.

That spanish nurse recovered/is recovering and I heard one of the american nurses with ebola was getting better, too. Soon, everyone will have forgotten all about ebola and the media will move on to the next incurable super deadly disease of doom.
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#8
Need to actually research this properly. I've just read briefly what's in the news, but it's seemed to me that it's going to be contained to Africa with a very minor spread in any developed countries. Isn't it also pretty much contained to West Africa? The countries currently seeing high numbers of infection are looking like they are in trouble, but they would be in trouble if one of the more serious stains of influenza hit because of the lack of health care infrastructure and compete mistrust of health care workers.

Anyway, I'm actually going to read some journal papers on it because getting information third hand from news outlets seems a bit daft.
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#9
Quote by EndTheRapture51
Nigeria is officially Ebola free so I don't think it's much of a problem if they can get rid of it.



Except Nigeria is by far the most developed Sub-Sharan African state and they only had 19 reported cases to begin with.
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#10
Quote by Cianyx
Except Nigeria is by far one of the most developed Sub-Saharan African states and they only had 19 reported cases to begin with.


Which means it's extremely unlikely for it to be a problem for me, in Western Europe.

longing rusted furnace daybreak seventeen benign nine homecoming one freight car
#11
Quote by Cianyx
Except Nigeria is by far one of the most developed Sub-Sharan African states and they only had 19 reported cases to begin with.

So it's not really spreading beyond the 3 utterly ****ed countries in which it's already rampant.

So the situation remains that more needs to be done there, but those of us who aren't health care workers in specialist infectious disease isolation units, will be totally unaffected by this.
#12
Quote by EndTheRapture51
Which means it's extremely unlikely for it to be a problem for me, in Western Europe.

I've never claimed that it would be.

Quote by slapsymcdougal
So it's not really spreading beyond the 3 utterly ****ed countries in which it's already rampant.

If that's your prognosis doctor, sure

Quote by Shabalaba
Isn't it also pretty much contained to West Africa?

No one can actually make a claim on containment just yet considering how poor reporting on the ground is, and how understaffed the region is.

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#13
Quote by Cianyx
I've never claimed that it would be.


If that's your prognosis doctor, sure

It's the facts as they stand.
The only transmissions outside Africa have been in HCWs directly involved in the care of repatriated cases, and who have(in all cases) not complied fully with the safety protocols in place, and there have been no infections from these individuals.

You can scaremonger all you like, but you're vastly more likely to get hit by a bus than even encounter anyone with ebola, let alone get infected by it.
#14
I'm not prone to touching the bodily fluids of strangers or eating bats so I'm not overly concerned. Call me when it becomes airborne.

If you want to get all scared about something get scared about something like cancer.
#15
Quote by slapsymcdougal
It's the facts as they stand.
The only transmissions outside Africa have been in HCWs directly involved in the care of repatriated cases, and who have(in all cases) not complied fully with the safety protocols in place, and there have been no infections from these individuals.

You can scaremonger all you like, but you're vastly more likely to get hit by a bus than even encounter anyone with ebola, let alone get infected by it.

Please point to the part where I claimed it will affect nations outside that of Africa. Please do.
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#16
Quote by Cianyx

tl;dr first and thus far only line of defence saying shit's ****ed on a whole different level


There. If you don't know what you are implying then you are an idiot

longing rusted furnace daybreak seventeen benign nine homecoming one freight car
#17
Ebola is truly tragic for the people who have been affected by it, but it's not going to wipe out humanity. All the people screaming 'Obama's ebola scandal' are making a 'scandal' where there isn't one. I really hate when people exploit other's suffering to further a petty political agenda.

Like this shit is seriously stupid:



I told her that Britain never closed their borders (I know Heathrow is doing screening for people from those countries but that's it) and she responded by just sending me the link to this again lol.


Making fun of stupidity aside, I'm not concerned for my own life but this is really terrible for the ebola prone areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.
#18
Quote by EndTheRapture51
There. If you don't know what you are implying then you are an idiot

At this point, you are really grasping at straws. Keep putting words into others' mouths though -- it's working real well for you. I can see why you get yelled at in feminism threads
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#19
Quote by Cianyx
At this point, you are really grasping at straws. Keep putting words into others' mouths though -- it's working real well for you. I can see why you get yelled at in feminism threads


If you aren't scaremongering and Eolba isn't a threat why are you making threads on how "shit's ****ed" stuff is?

longing rusted furnace daybreak seventeen benign nine homecoming one freight car
#20
I think they are reacting to how it's being portrayed in the media in regards to its severity beyond the affected areas.

It's a tragedy for the worst affected countries, beyond the obvious aspect of losing family members /parents /income, it'll decimate their economies, but this won't be the last outbreak of a serious disease over there. Hell, given the amount of drugs were burning through I'd expect multi-drug resistant pathogens to absolutely ravage any countries like the ones affected within the next 10-15 years.

^ because the affected countries are ****ed. You both are arguing different points.
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Last edited by Shabalaba at Oct 22, 2014,
#21
Didn't we already have a thread on this and it got locked?
Either way. I'm tons more concerned with that black mold thing on reddit someone posted. Like, legitimately.
Quote by snipelfritz
You lost me at "Lubricate."

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Sometimes I fuck a bamboo shoot.


There's nothing left here to be saved
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#22
Quote by Cianyx
Please point to the part where I claimed it will affect nations outside that of Africa. Please do.

Why would you have the words "brace yourself" in the thread title if you weren't implying that?

Or did you mean we should brace ourselves for your idiocy?
#23
^ aka the poopstorm he is about to start. Which is probably the reason the last one got locked.
Quote by snipelfritz
You lost me at "Lubricate."

I'm raw, like nature. Nature boy. Big jungle leaves are my cum rags.

Sometimes I fuck a bamboo shoot.


There's nothing left here to be saved
Just barreling dogs and barking trains
Another year lost to the blue line
#24
Quote by slapsymcdougal
Why would you have the words "brace yourself" in the thread title if you weren't implying that?

Or did you mean we should brace ourselves for your idiocy?



For future reference, give me a number. How many reported cases/deaths before you deem it worth considering?
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#25
Quote by Cianyx
For future reference, give me a number. How many reported cases/deaths before you deem it worth considering?

1000 deaths in a first world country
#26
Quote by Cianyx
For future reference, give me a number. How many reported cases/deaths before you deem it worth considering?

I've been considering this outbreak for some time, because I pay some attention to the news, and considering I have a degree which included in-depth study of infectious diseases(viral, bacterial, parasitic and fungal), immunology and epidemiology, I find the media's scaremongering and misrepresentation of expert opinion interesting. Yours is rather sub-par, for the record.

FWIW, I'm not, and have never been, worried on a personal level. There is no reason for anyone in a wealthy European/American/Asian nation to be. Or even an Australian(past the whole 'every native species wants to kill me' thing). I have for some months been of the opinion that the governments in developed nations have not been energetic enough in the provision of aid(in the form of medical supplies, training and personnel), and believe that they are still lagging behind in this respect.

Also, you're kind of a knob.
#28
Quote by slapsymcdougal
I've been considering this outbreak for some time, because I pay some attention to the news, and considering I have a degree which included in-depth study of infectious diseases(viral, bacterial, parasitic and fungal), immunology and epidemiology, I find the media's scaremongering and misrepresentation of expert opinion interesting. Yours is rather sub-par, for the record.


For someone with a supposed in-depth knowledge of epidemiology, you have done nothing but assert that it is contained to 3 countries, then insist I'm scaremongering on some vague implication that you latched onto 2 words I had in the title. For someone who managed to obtain a degree, you're not very proficient at comprehending explicit English or formulating arguments. You are good at projecting though, I'll give you that -- was that your dissertation requirements?

Also, you're kind of a knob.

And yet, you're the one who had to resort to calling me an idiot in the first place on top of leveling accusations which for some reason you can't let go. And those weren't numbers
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#29
The really shitty thing is that is that the rate of infection in aid workers is increasing. Pretty soon, if enough of them fall ill (and god forbid, die), aid workers will stop going and the disease will spread through africa even faster.
Last edited by Seref at Oct 22, 2014,
#31
Quote by Cianyx
For someone with a supposed in-depth knowledge of immunology, you have done nothing but assert that it is contained to 3 countries, then insist I'm scaremongering on some vague implication that you projected onto 2 words I had in the title. For someone who managed to obtain a degree, you're not very proficient at comprehending explicit English or formulating arguments. You are good at projecting though, I'll give you that -- was that your dissertation requirements?


And yet, you're the one who had to resort to calling me an idiot in the first place.

No, I described your post as idiocy, which is not the same as calling you an idiot.

However, since you obviously didn't even look up what immunology is(here's a hint - the subject I mentioned which deals with the spread of diseases would be epidemiology), you're not in much of a position to criticise my knowledge in either of those disciplines.
#32
I can't really criticise your expertise in the field (which I'll promptly correct) because all you've done is assert some stuff then waved it off when I brought it up. Wouldn't all this have gone away if you had just corrected me when I dismissed your assertions earlier on?

It was implied that you called me an idiot. Why would you say "your idiocy" when you could have said "your idiotic posts", and what else would an idiot do but spread idiocy? Apologies if I misunderstood your intent
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Last edited by Cianyx at Oct 22, 2014,
#33
is there actually a chance that it could become airborne or anything like that? I mean obviously I wouldn't have to worry about that, since I live underwater, but then what if it evolves into waterborne
¯\_()_/¯
#35
Quote by CaptainCanti
is there actually a chance that it could become airborne or anything like that? I mean obviously I wouldn't have to worry about that, since I live underwater, but then what if it evolves into waterborne


The risk of ebola getting airborne is next to none. As it is now you have to either touch a person with ebola or touch bodyfluids from a person with ebola to get it. I'm not worried at all about getting it and neither should you be unless you are living in Africa. That being said, we should do everything in our power to contain it.

Trust me I studied cellular biology at uni.
#36
Quote by slapsymcdougal
I have for some months been of the opinion that the governments in developed nations have not been energetic enough in the provision of aid(in the form of medical supplies, training and personnel), and believe that they are still lagging behind in this respect.

It doesn't take a degree to work that one out.
#37
Quote by Nelshizzle
Based on my knowledge of video game simulators involving deadly spreads of virus, i'd close all the borders.

Every day I'm waiting for the news to be, 'Madagascar shuts down shipyards.'
#38
don't even know wtf you guys are on about

the only line of defence is in africa and it is indeed fukd over there. why is everyone talking about how safely tucked up they are in norwich so they couldn't give a fuk?
#39
because people don't actually think Africa exists
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#40
Quote by willT08
don't even know wtf you guys are on about

the only line of defence is in africa and it is indeed fukd over there. why is everyone talking about how safely tucked up they are in norwich so they couldn't give a fuk?



viable vaccines were looked at years ago in the time when everyone was stressing about bio-terrorism. by the time they've gone through enough trials and final development to be considered okay for mass vaccination it'll be too late for the countries currently affected as everyone who is most at threat from ebola would have already been hit. it'll likely be available just in time to control it spreading to us here early next year. even without the vaccines, you have the better organisation and healthcare here that would slow down any spread.

gsk is trying to rush through the usual approval process for vaccines though. light news bit on it: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/uk-health-ebola-gsk-idUKKCN0IB1CY20141022

warms my heart a bit to not see a pharma company being total money hungry dicks about some stuff
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