#1
After quite a bit of trading and buying on the used market, I realized that a lot of people don't have a damned clue what used guitars are worth. The used guitar market isn't difficult to understand, but it's a little heavy on rumors and a little light on actual data and studies. So I decided to do a bit of research on my own! While this isn't a comprehensive or conclusive analysis, it's a step towards a database that can help us draw real conclusions in the future.

Not excited yet? I'll try my best



Research techniques and initial disclaimers:

For this study, I used the very helpful tools of Reverb.com to gather data on 250 past transactions. I only used data from guitars that sold, and only the price they actually sold at, disregarding the original listed prices.

I also had to gather the MSRPs of every guitar, and correct for inflation in some cases. For that reason (it's difficult to find original prices on guitars more than a decade or two old) the vast majority of the guitars studied were from the mid 1990's - current production models. Guitars much older than two or three decades likely need more specialized research; old Teiscos may go for a third of their original price, while a 50's Les Paul can fetch 30 times (!) its originally hefty MSRP (after adjusting for inflation!).

To recap; look at this as a study on the differences primarily between manufacturers, features, and price ranges of modern guitars, and not as a tool for identifying priceless unusual antiquities, and we'll hopefully come to some interesting conclusions. Disclaimers over - let's get to the (relatively) interesting stuff!


Initial results


Results made more pleasant to read


Interesting stuff:

The baseline intercept is 0.388. (This would be a guitar from no particular brand, in "fair" condition). The units for everything are converted to "resale value as a percentage of MSRP".

In layman's terms, this means that a typical used guitar in not particularly great condition will go for around 39% of the original price. The upper and lower confidence boundaries are 31% and 47% with 95% confidence; so only about one in twenty guitars will either go for under a third or over half of its original price (in "fair" condition).

Condition:

The condition of the guitar is quite important and I was able to collect solid data on this using Reverb's standard system of "fair", "good", "very good", "excellent", and "mint". Moving up each bracket increases the resale value by 6.59% on average, standard deviation of 1%.

Mint = +26.36%
Excellent = +19.77%
Very Good = +13.2%
Good = +6.59%
Fair = +- 0.0%



Now, these brackets are qualitative and up for interpretation, but it's as good a system as one can hope for in a market so varied. So, combining this information with the baseline, we can understand that a typical guitar in "excellent" condition will go for between 50% and 67% of its original MSRP, without looking at any other factors.


Price Range:

The original MSRP showed little to no cohesive trend. I thought that either very cheap or very expensive guitars might hold their value better, but the coefficient was so small and the confidence so low it indicates virtually no correlation at all. So neither expensive nor cheap guitars have an advantage regarding resale value (but hold your horses, because brand still matters!)


Age:

The age of the guitar has a very slight negative correlation (with about 75% confidence). It's not very predictive and most of the guitars studied were typical guitars from the 1980s-2010s, so don't throw out your '59 LP just yet.



However, looking at specific cases such as 1990's Fender Stratocasters vs 2010's Fender Stratocasters found that typically, at least regarding guitars produced since the 1980's, every decade of age will devalue the guitar by about 2%, FWIW.


Construction:



Acoustic:
While the majority of guitars studied were electric, acoustic guitars appeared to hold their value slightly worse, only about 3.5% difference, and with only 65% confidence. Because less samples were taken and the margin of error so high, we can more or less disregard this result.



Hollow Body:
Hollow body guitars held their value noticeably better than average, at +8.3%. Thus, holding everything else constant (as much as possible!) most hollow body guitars will be worth between 2% less and 19% more used than an equivalent solid body. It's a wide range but we can say with 89% confidence that the relationship is a positive one.




Semi Hollow Body:
Semi hollow guitars (i.e. ES-335s) held their value best of all, at +13.0%, standard error of 3.5%. That's a noticeable trend! It should be noted that many of the semi-hollows were also Epiphones (more later) which may have inflated this measure. Nonetheless, it appears that semi-hollows have a measurable advantage over the typical solid body in resale value.


Rareness:

Few guitars in the study were considered "rare", so take the small sample size into consideration. Indicating a guitar as "rare", be it a special edition or a less common vintage guitar, averaged an increase of 16.6% to the value, standard error of 4.6%. That's certainly a noticeable increase; defining the threshold for "rare" proves to be much more difficult. It's hardly a surprise that limited edition or hard to find guitars go for more, but now we have a rough estimate of how much more that might be.


Brands:

There was only one clear winner here; Epiphone, with an average increase of +14.3%. I'm not sure exactly why Epiphone has such an advantage here; part may stem from the fact that more Epiphones were also semi-hollow guitars, part is likely the high demand for Gibsons by people without money for actual Gibsons that makes Epiphone so popular. Anywho, I'm coining the term "the Epiphone-Effect" right now just in case it turns out to be part of a larger trend :p

Fender held up alright, at +4.1%, but with a fairly large margin of error. Whether it's a Strat or Tele, it'll probably do a little better than an Ibanez or other "average" brand.

Gibson did more poorly at an average of -6.0%, in contrast. This may be due to their extortionary MSRPs or due to recent complaints of unpredictable quality (not a huge Gibson fan here, surprise, and I do feel a touch of schadenfreude at this result).

Squier did pretty well at +5.5%, actually holding value slightly better than their more expensive Fender relatives. This is a little surprising given how common Squiers are (you'd think the market would be flooded), but they have a reputation for being workable guitars at great prices.

Ibanez was almost indistinguishable from the mean, neither contributing nor detracting from the value as compared to an "average" guitar. While researching MSRPs on a few older Ibbys I read a few forums chatting about how everyone knows that Ibanez guitars don't hold their value as well. Huh.

Schecter did slightly worse than average, but with a high margin of error due to relatively low sample size. As a Schecter fan I'm a little bit disappointed yet also little bit excited by the prospect of continuing to get some smashing guitars at slightly undervalued prices.

PRS also didn't do so hot at -6.7%. Most likely they suffer from the same issue with high prices as Gibson; the market simply has to be smaller when typical guitars cost several grand. (In the theme of separating Epiphone and Gibson, Fender and Squier, PRS SE was not included in the analysis of PRS resale).

Rickenbacker did poorly at -21.1%, but the sample size was small and original MSRPs fluctuate quite a bit. Again, these are pricey guitars and tailored to a more specialized audience, but I'd still take the result with a grain of salt.

The one Teisco sale that I measured was the clear loser at -30%; although it was a fairly typical representation of a Teisco resale, it was only one instance. While selling today for $100 what could be bought in 1965 for $69 may seem like a deal, inflation means it's most definitely not. Manufacturing has come a long way in the past 50 years, and mass-produced guitars have improved by leaps and bounds while cutting costs dramatically along the way. While older guitars are always more variable and some may increase in value quite a bit, most older, mass-produced guitars simply will not.




Application:

Neato, we have a workable data pool and have extracted some moderately useful info from it. How can we apply this?

Simple; take the intercept coefficient and add or subtract based on each of the other attributes.

Let's take a 2010 Squier Classic Vibe 60's Strat in "very good" condition - a $400 Squier solidbody (age is negligible). Thus we start with:

Intercept = 38.8% + (no change for construction) + (no change for rarity) + 13.2% for condition +5.5% for brand = 57.5%.

Multiply that by the MSRP of $400 and we get an estimated resale value of $230. Pretty nifty huh? Of course, every guitar is a special snowflake, the market is never quite the same, and there are significant margins of error involved. Still, it's nice to be able to get a workable rough average for nearly any guitar.

Let's try another example for completeness sake before wrapping this up - a Gibson ES-335, two years old but in mint condition. 38.8% + 13% for semi hollow, + 26% for mint condition, - 6% for brand. 71.8% times MSRP of $3500 gives us an estimated value of $2500. That's a $1000 bath for it no longer being factory new, but that's just how the market works.

One last thing I analyzed out of curiosity - does color affect the resale value? Obviously if it's a flame top that jacks the initial value up, that's different, but I wanted to see if there was any difference between colors as well. The answer is "no, not really", so don't stress about resale value when trying to decide between racecar red and Pelham blue for your next Strat


Final words:

Again, this is far from comprehensive or conclusive with certainty, but it's a decent place to start and shows some interesting results. I doubt too many other people will be excited to trawl webpages for transaction history data, but a database of at least 1000 instances would definitely yield more conclusive results, if anyone's feeling up to the task. And for any webpage programmers out there, a simple in-browser calculator where people can input guitar attributes and get out a set of results would be a fantastic tool for the less mathematically-inclined.

Thanks for reading, hope you learned a little something, and let me know what you think!
#3
to many disclaimers to make this study really useful. the idea that Epiphone is somehow a more solid investment in terms of used sales seems a bit suspect. if you take out the semi-hollows then I'd bet there is a sharp decline in the rest of the brand.
#4
I'm thinking that a bit of experience and a good guess, plus a wet finger in the air to see which way the financial winds are blowing will get you in the ballpark.

But at least all this math gave you something to do and stimulated a neuron or two on a cold winter's night.
#5
Quote by monwobobbo
to many disclaimers to make this study really useful. the idea that Epiphone is somehow a more solid investment in terms of used sales seems a bit suspect. if you take out the semi-hollows then I'd bet there is a sharp decline in the rest of the brand.


Better than too few disclaimers and being misleading or unscientific. It can be your opinion that Epiphone is not a solid investment but I just spent several hours collecting hundreds of data points that indicate otherwise. There is likely some correlation to the pervasiveness of semi-hollow bodies, which is why I mentioned it, but the point of regression analysis is that it isolates independent variables by holding others constant, so it won't be a terribly large change.

Quote by dspellman
I'm thinking that a bit of experience and a good guess, plus a wet finger in the air to see which way the financial winds are blowing will get you in the ballpark.

But at least all this math gave you something to do and stimulated a neuron or two on a cold winter's night.


Oh absolutely, an experienced guitarist who knows their gear can do better than a generalized formula, but it's interesting to find the comparative relationships (such as semi-hollow vs solidbody resale) anyway, and this could easily still be developed into a browser-based calculation tool to give less experienced people a reasonable estimate (the idea that pawn shops will stop asking $300 for a Squier is appealing, even if unlikely :P )
#6
Quote by Matt (GGR)
Better than too few disclaimers and being misleading or unscientific. It can be your opinion that Epiphone is not a solid investment but I just spent several hours collecting hundreds of data points that indicate otherwise. There is likely some correlation to the pervasiveness of semi-hollow bodies, which is why I mentioned it, but the point of regression analysis is that it isolates independent variables by holding others constant, so it won't be a terribly large change.


Oh absolutely, an experienced guitarist who knows their gear can do better than a generalized formula, but it's interesting to find the comparative relationships (such as semi-hollow vs solidbody resale) anyway, and this could easily still be developed into a browser-based calculation tool to give less experienced people a reasonable estimate (the idea that pawn shops will stop asking $300 for a Squier is appealing, even if unlikely :P )


without seeing a breakdown of the guitars you used it's tough to tell much. starter pack epiphones hold very little resale value but are part of the brand. other low end models again hold very little resale value. this is based on my 35+ years of playing and dealing with used guitars. feel free to present a breakdown of the epi models used for study
#7
Quote by monwobobbo
without seeing a breakdown of the guitars you used it's tough to tell much. starter pack epiphones hold very little resale value but are part of the brand. other low end models again hold very little resale value. this is based on my 35+ years of playing and dealing with used guitars. feel free to present a breakdown of the epi models used for study


The breakdown of Epiphone only guitars is approximately a dozen LP Standards, a dozen various Casinos, a half dozen LP Customs, a half dozen of the "1966" model SG G400, a half dozen Flying Vs, a half dozen Dots, and a half dozen low-end Masterbilts. So I was mistaken when I said that there was an unusual number of Epiphone semi-hollows; they're fairly well set with full hollowbodies, but a perfectly healthy balance of semi-hollows, so nothing to sway the data there. All of the models are "mainstream" Epiphone, in the typical $300-$700 range new, neither "starter pack" crap nor the high end exclusive models.
#8
this is pretty damn sweet! i appreciate the energy you spent on this. but in general it is still a case-by-case situation.

nice work
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#10
A solid study, as someone who appreciates nerdy stuff like this, I can say this is my favorite thread in quite a while. Thanks for taking the time to complete this study, I really enjoyed the read!

While I agree with Dspellman that an experienced seller/buyer can usually feel this out pretty well, I think its neat to have this as a reference. Furthermore, your method seems to be more robust than any previous study I've seen regarding this matter, and could be the baseline for a much LARGER study that we could have even MORE confidence in.
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#11
Really interesting read, thanks for putting that together
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Native State
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Gear:
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Mayones Regius 7 Buckeye Burl
LSL CVS Studio Strat
Fender American Standard Tele
Faith Hi Gloss Venus

Mesa Lonestar Special
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#12
Good work, definitely worth the read (I appreciate the nerdy stuff as well). As others have stated though there are a lot of variables at play.
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EVH 5153, Orange TV50H 2-2x12's
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#13


Fascinating thread. The best I've seen in a long time.
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#14
I think Reverb ought to contract this guy out so he can develop and even more accurate study.
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#15
maybe worth a sticky???
WTLT 2014 GG&A

Quote by andersondb7
alright "king of the guitar forum"


Quote by trashedlostfdup
nope i am "GOD of the guitar forum" i think that fits me better.


Quote by andersondb7
youre just being a jerk man.



****** NEW NEW NEW!
2017-07-07 2017-07-07 Update and a Chat On Noise Constraints *** NEW FRIDAY 7/7
2017-04-13 RUN AWAY from COMPUTERS!!! TCE? RANT ALERT!!!
2017-03-02 - Guitar Philosophy 1001- Be Prepared For the Situation (Thursday 2017-03-02)
2017-02-21 How to Hot-Rod the Hell of your Stratocaster for $50! (Tuesday 2017-2-21)
Resentments and Rambling from a Guitar Junkie
---> http://trashedengineering.blogspot.com/
#16
marvelous post
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#17
Wish I thought of something this rad for an assignment in the stats class I just took!

Bravo to you!
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#18
That's very interesting, and I appreciate that a lot of effort was put into that, but is MSRP the best thing to use as your starting point? MSRPs vary relative to what things actually sell for (new in shops, I mean) quite substantially brand to brand. Even if MSRPs included exactly the same premium over "street" prices for every brand and model, that's going to decrease the percentage return you get when you sell (in your figures, I mean).

The other thing is about holding value- I used to agree about the percentage thing, but then I saw a vid on youtube () and it pointed out that, for most people, the actual monetary amount you lose is probably more important. The percentage is actually kind of academic. I kind of agree with that assessment.

For example:

If you sell an originally-$500 guitar and lose 50%, you lose $250.

If you sell an originally-$2000 and lose only 25%, you're tempted to think you haven't lost as much. "Look, I only lost 25%, while you mugs buying cheaper guitars lose 50%! More expensive guitars are a good idea because they hold their value better when it comes to selling them."

But 25% of $2000 is $500. You've actually lost double what the person selling the cheaper guitar lost (and that's assuming that the assumption that more expensive guitars hold substantially more, as a percentage, of their original value when sold is true, and even that is debatable or at least very dependent upon the brand in question), at least assuming that the thing you're interested in is the amount of money in your pocket (most likely) rather than the more academic figure of what percentage of the original selling price you lost.
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Quote by K33nbl4d3
I'll have to put the Classic T models on my to-try list. Shame the finish options there are Anachronism Gold, Nuclear Waste and Aged Clown, because in principle the plaintop is right up my alley.

Quote by K33nbl4d3
Presumably because the CCF (Combined Corksniffing Forces) of MLP and Gibson forums would rise up against them, plunging the land into war.

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#20
Quote by Matt (GGR)
The breakdown of Epiphone only guitars is approximately a dozen LP Standards, a dozen various Casinos, a half dozen LP Customs, a half dozen of the "1966" model SG G400, a half dozen Flying Vs, a half dozen Dots, and a half dozen low-end Masterbilts. So I was mistaken when I said that there was an unusual number of Epiphone semi-hollows; they're fairly well set with full hollowbodies, but a perfectly healthy balance of semi-hollows, so nothing to sway the data there. All of the models are "mainstream" Epiphone, in the typical $300-$700 range new, neither "starter pack" crap nor the high end exclusive models.


by leaving out the top and bottom that skews the results. your Epiphone results need an * to show that this is in a certain price range only. also gotta agree with checking Ebay and perhaps another source or two as one source isn't enough to draw any real conclusions.

not saying this isn't an interesting idea or thread by the way.
#22
Quote by monwobobbo
by leaving out the top and bottom that skews the results. your Epiphone results need an * to show that this is in a certain price range only. also gotta agree with checking Ebay and perhaps another source or two as one source isn't enough to draw any real conclusions.
Agreed - this is a cool idea but I think it needs a wider sample for that claim at least.

Also, I'm not convinced that, accounting for inflation or not, a 16 year old Standard Tele would have the same MSRP as a 4 year old one, unless I'm misreading the data or just wrong.

Even so, really neat bit of maths fun.
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#23
Quote by monwobobbo

not saying this isn't an interesting idea or thread by the way.


agreed.

I'm pointing out the possible problems because bad statistics do more harm than good- you think you know when you don't.

another problem I just thought of is that average is an iffy statistic to use. It's probably fine for reverb and ebay (at least within the one country), but for local sales it doesn't really matter what the overall average is, all that matters is the local market.
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Quote by K33nbl4d3
I'll have to put the Classic T models on my to-try list. Shame the finish options there are Anachronism Gold, Nuclear Waste and Aged Clown, because in principle the plaintop is right up my alley.

Quote by K33nbl4d3
Presumably because the CCF (Combined Corksniffing Forces) of MLP and Gibson forums would rise up against them, plunging the land into war.

Quote by T00DEEPBLUE
Et tu, br00tz?
#24
Quote by Dave_Mc
agreed.

I'm pointing out the possible problems because bad statistics do more harm than good- you think you know when you don't.

another problem I just thought of is that average is an iffy statistic to use. It's probably fine for reverb and ebay (at least within the one country), but for local sales it doesn't really matter what the overall average is, all that matters is the local market.


good points. local conditions do certainly come into play if item bought locally. US stats mean little to nothing outside of the US for sure. also domestic product will be cheaper at point of origin. Marshall amps are certainly cheaper in the UK than here but say Mesa would be the opposite.

one other thing that skews prices is when there is a big price increase on new. MIM Fenders went up by $100 and the used market is starting to shift with higher prices on used. that $300 MIM strat that wasn't moving in a hurry didn't magically become a $400 guitar in reality.
#25
Quote by Dave_Mc
That's very interesting, and I appreciate that a lot of effort was put into that, but is MSRP the best thing to use as your starting point? MSRPs vary relative to what things actually sell for (new in shops, I mean) quite substantially brand to brand. Even if MSRPs included exactly the same premium over "street" prices for every brand and model, that's going to decrease the percentage return you get when you sell (in your figures, I mean).

The other thing is about holding value- I used to agree about the percentage thing, but then I saw a vid on youtube () and it pointed out that, for most people, the actual monetary amount you lose is probably more important. [...]


True that the retail price can vary, but I figured the best solution was to use the lowest legitimate price (typically Musician's Friend) and ignore whatever price raises may take place in local dealers.

And that's an interesting point you make about the total mattering more than the percentage, but I see the percentage as being of much greater statistical significance and infinitely more useful for drawing any comparative conclusions; in any case, total loss is easy to find when you have the percentage already.

Quote by Ippon
Matt (GGR)
How about pulling eBay's sold listings to make the pool a bit bigger.

Guitar Center's Used listings may help a bit, too. http://www.guitarcenter.com/Used/Electric-Guitars.gc#narrowSideBar


Good idea, if someone else wants to help gather data I'll gladly take it but right now I'm a little tired to go collect a couple hundred more samples :p

Quote by monwobobbo
by leaving out the top and bottom that skews the results. your Epiphone results need an * to show that this is in a certain price range only. also gotta agree with checking Ebay and perhaps another source or two as one source isn't enough to draw any real conclusions.

not saying this isn't an interesting idea or thread by the way.


True, although throwing in a bunch of low end starter pack bolt-ons would then skew the results of more typical midrange guitars as well. The really cheap stuff just isn't frequently worth the effort to sell through Reverb so data is comparatively spotty and I figured would be more trouble than it's worth.

Quote by K33nbl4d3
Also, I'm not convinced that, accounting for inflation or not, a 16 year old Standard Tele would have the same MSRP as a 4 year old one, unless I'm misreading the data or just wrong.

Even so, really neat bit of maths fun.


All prices were adjusted for inflation, which is a noticeable difference in some cases. Unfortunately the prices aren't raised in tidy little increments of pennies per day and instead often change as $100 every decade or so, which adds a little bit more uncertainty between specific years as well.

Quote by Dave_Mc

another problem I just thought of is that average is an iffy statistic to use. It's probably fine for reverb and ebay (at least within the one country), but for local sales it doesn't really matter what the overall average is, all that matters is the local market.


I considered adding a measure of "market size" as well - this would be ideal, but it's damn near impossible to execute with any precision or any scale to the data of course. And certainly, at the end of the day the local market is contingent upon the specific people in the area, but damn, a national average is a whole lot more practical to calculate!

Quote by monwobobbo
good points. local conditions do certainly come into play if item bought locally. US stats mean little to nothing outside of the US for sure. also domestic product will be cheaper at point of origin. Marshall amps are certainly cheaper in the UK than here but say Mesa would be the opposite.


Well it's a different question whether or not trends for brands, age, and construction carry across to different countries. Certainly in this globalized market there's more similarities than differences, but that is a good point regarding domestic products as well. Not sure exactly how much of a difference that makes, but that would also be a different study. Wonder how the new restrictions on importing rosewood will change things as well, let alone if our president-elect actually follows through with suggested "yuge" import tariffs (not starting a political debate lol).
#28
Quote by AcousticMirror
why would you ever buy a guitar for an investment in the first place.
Guitars bought as an 'investment' are going to be pissing money away; unless maybe you can convince Billy Gibbons to sell you Pearly Gates for less than 6 figures.
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#29
As I said above, I don't want anyone to think I'm tearing this down- I think it's a good idea and it took a lot of work to do this. And the result suggesting that condition actually does result in an increase to the sale price is interesting- I'd have been tempted to say (before seeing the stats) that condition (barring real extremes on either end of the condition scale) didn't really affect the price much, but may affect whether the thing actually sold or not.

Which brings me to another thing I've thought of that would be awesome (though I realise it's likely to be impossible to actually do)- if you could somehow get figures on how quickly stuff sells, that might give us some very interesting information.

For example, does stuff in good condition sell more quickly? (I suspect it would- at least with all other variables constant (like price, for example- it might not sell more quickly if the seller is expecting an unrealistic price because the guitar is mint.))

Do the more poopular brands sell more quickly? (Again, I suspect so, with the same caveat as above.) How about the more popular models within those brands?

Combining that with the price things sell at could also give you more information- it's likely that stuff that sells more quickly is making it into your results more often than the stuff which sells more slowly, which may be skewing your results. If 5 people are desperate to sell, say, a USA standard strat, and price it very keenly, they might all sell theirs for, say, $500 each. 5 other people might be less desperate to sell, and price theirs at $700. Only one may sell within the time frame of the collected data. That says that the average price of a used USA standard strat is ~$533. But if you're willing to wait and aren't in a rush (assuming the other 4 prices at $700 actually did sell eventually, of course), the actual average sale price of a USA Standard Strat is more like $700, while the average price if you're in a hurry is $500 (and obviously those are two extremes, you could price it at, say, $600 if you weren't in a massive rush but didn't want to wait for months either).

(Of course you could argue as to how long you can keep something up for sale without selling before it's assumed that that's an unrealistic price and that it will never sell! )


Quote by monwobobbo
good points. local conditions do certainly come into play if item bought locally. US stats mean little to nothing outside of the US for sure. also domestic product will be cheaper at point of origin. Marshall amps are certainly cheaper in the UK than here but say Mesa would be the opposite.

one other thing that skews prices is when there is a big price increase on new. MIM Fenders went up by $100 and the used market is starting to shift with higher prices on used. that $300 MIM strat that wasn't moving in a hurry didn't magically become a $400 guitar in reality.


Yep that's a very good point. I was thinking he likely used MSRPs instead of street prices because street prices can vary so much and it's difficult to get all the data for that, but even MSRPs can vary and as you said, that will affect used prices before too long as well.

Quote by Matt (GGR)
(a) True that the retail price can vary, but I figured the best solution was to use the lowest legitimate price (typically Musician's Friend) and ignore whatever price raises may take place in local dealers.

(b) And that's an interesting point you make about the total mattering more than the percentage, but I see the percentage as being of much greater statistical significance and infinitely more useful for drawing any comparative conclusions; in any case, total loss is easy to find when you have the percentage already.


(c) Good idea, if someone else wants to help gather data I'll gladly take it but right now I'm a little tired to go collect a couple hundred more samples :p


(d) All prices were adjusted for inflation, which is a noticeable difference in some cases. Unfortunately the prices aren't raised in tidy little increments of pennies per day and instead often change as $100 every decade or so, which adds a little bit more uncertainty between specific years as well.


(e) I considered adding a measure of "market size" as well - this would be ideal, but it's damn near impossible to execute with any precision or any scale to the data of course. And certainly, at the end of the day the local market is contingent upon the specific people in the area, but damn, a national average is a whole lot more practical to calculate!


(f) Well it's a different question whether or not trends for brands, age, and construction carry across to different countries. Certainly in this globalized market there's more similarities than differences, but that is a good point regarding domestic products as well. Not sure exactly how much of a difference that makes, but that would also be a different study. Wonder how the new restrictions on importing rosewood will change things as well, let alone if our president-elect actually follows through with suggested "yuge" import tariffs (not starting a political debate lol).


(a) Ah ok, if you're using actual genuine street prices then that's different.

(b) True, but then you're into the argument of whether the point of this entire endeavour is to have something that will be useful to guitarists, or which will have statisticians (or maybe more accurately, armchair statisticians ) stroking their chins in approval

I mean, I agree that the percentage tells you more... but it can also be misleading, for the monetary amount reason (and possibly other reasons too).

(c) haha

(d) Yeah that's absolutely true and I dare say that confounds things a lot. The other thing which makes it even worse is that price rises rarely go totally in line with inflation, because inflation is an average (and usually only across certain goods and services). It's entirely possible that the same model of guitar in 1995 cost more, in real terms, than it does today, for example.

(e) Yep, I appreciate that. Doing it right is really difficult. The only problem is (and as I said, I'm not trying to pull this down, I think it's great in general) that if you don't get it sufficiently right, you're actually causing more confusion than you're curing.

(f) I'm not sure. I mean, if you look at the prices of the USA-made stuff it's often noticeably more expensive in Europe and the UK (slight blip at the moment with the Brexit-related fall of the pound because a lot of stores still have stock bought at the old exchange rate which skews it). There definitely are some similarities (and prices may well be getting more similar, since it's a lot easier to check now on international prices with the internet), but there are some differences, too.
I'm an idiot and I accidentally clicked the "Remove all subscriptions" button. If it seems like I'm ignoring you, I'm not, I'm just no longer subscribed to the thread. If you quote me or do the @user thing at me, hopefully it'll notify me through my notifications and I'll get back to you.
Quote by K33nbl4d3
I'll have to put the Classic T models on my to-try list. Shame the finish options there are Anachronism Gold, Nuclear Waste and Aged Clown, because in principle the plaintop is right up my alley.

Quote by K33nbl4d3
Presumably because the CCF (Combined Corksniffing Forces) of MLP and Gibson forums would rise up against them, plunging the land into war.

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Et tu, br00tz?
Last edited by Dave_Mc at Jan 5, 2017,
#30
Slight bump on this but wanted to say its a fantastic and well thought out idea.

Seems the main problem is simply volume of data, you should look into someone setting up a script to scan ebay sold listing and item descriptions to compile more of it.

Let us know if you build on this in any way, a big enough database that updates itself could make for a decent website. Some parameters of people to input and outputs a rough list price. Probably make some money off running adds on that