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#1


I have three boxes. In one of the boxes is an incredibly valuable ring, the other two are empty.

Obviously, I know which box the ring is in. You do not.


You are allowed to choose one box.


After you have chosen the box, i will remove one empty box from the table.

You will then be given the opportunity to either keep the box you have currently, or switch it for the remaining box.


If you choose the box with the ring in, you will be allowed to keep the ring.


Should you stick or switch?


By the way, I'm not asking which box you would choose, I'm asking if you would switch after you had chosen.


Decide now what you would do, and then click here .


You will also realise that the bolding I used is not only completely unnecessary, but quite patronising. Sorry about that.

Was it what you expected? Do you think I'm wrong and stupid?
Discuss.
Last edited by rizo299 at Oct 14, 2007,
#3
I don't see any logic about the answer..
what if I picked the ring, and I folowed the hint I'd lose it !!

Quote by Aqua Dementia
I pick box A.

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Middle!!!!11111

Quote by 666hamish666
box a


you guys might wonne read the post before posting


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Last edited by noxiosimitator at Oct 14, 2007,
#7
Box C is full of vaginas. Stay away.

Seriously though, that logic doesn't make any sense to me.
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#8
Quote by noxiosimitator
I don't see any logic about the answer..
what if I picked the ring, and I folowed the hint I'd lose it !!



Well look at it this way.

Two thirds of the time the first box you choose will be empty. That means that the box remaining on the table will be the box containing the ring two thirds of the time.


If you picked up the box with the ring in the first time, then of course you should stick, but you wouldn't know that you had it. And its far more likely that the ring is the box left on the table. Therefore if you switch, two out of three times, you'll get the ring.
#10
Quote by Muphin


Seriously though, that logic doesn't make any sense to me.


Same here, I just picked a box anyway.
#11
Right I'll explain it another way.

you have a 66.6666% chance of picking an empty box first right?


That means that 66.6666% of the time I'm forced to leave the box with the ring in on the table

therefore, 66.6666% of the time, if you switch, you'll win.

where as if you stick you'll only win 33.3333% of the time
#12
Quote by Muphin
Box C is full of vaginas. Stay away.

box C for me
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#13
your game doesn't work, you say would you keep the box or switch it for the remaining one, well there are TWO remaining boxes....duh
so you're better off to keep the one you took
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#14
Ahahaha, way to steal this from The Tale of The Dead Dog In The Night or whatver it was called, through probability you switch though.
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#15
Its bull****, i mean, at the start all the boxes have a 1/3 chance of having it.

Once you eliminate one box, why is it only the box you havent picked that goes up to a 50% chance?

They all have the same chance.
#17
Quote by ChaoticVengence
your game doesn't work, you say would you keep the box or switch it for the remaining one, well there are TWO remaining boxes....duh
so you're better off to keep the one you took



There is only one remaining box. Once you chose your box, i removed one empty box from the two that remain from the table.

I assure you it works


Quote by 7daycrisis
Its bull****, i mean, at the start all the boxes have a 1/3 chance of having it.

Once you eliminate one box, why is it only the box you havent picked that goes up to a 50% chance?

They all have the same chance.



Right. At the start, you are more likely to choose an empty box. Twice as likely as you are to choose the box with the ring in.

That means that 66.6666% of the time you choose an empty box, and seeing as the box i remove has to be empty, 66.6666% of the time the box left on the table is the box with the ring.

Therefore 66.666% of the time, if you switch you'll win. As opposed to only winning 33.3333% of the time if you stick.
Last edited by rizo299 at Oct 14, 2007,
#18
Quote by rizo299
Right I'll explain it another way.

you have a 66.6666% chance of picking an empty box first right?


That means that 66.6666% of the time I'm forced to leave the box with the ring in on the table

therefore, 66.6666% of the time, if you switch, you'll win.

where as if you stick you'll only win 33.3333% of the time


Ah... I'll keep that in mind.
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#19
it made more sense wen i red that dead dog book..
u do a probability tree i think
maybe...
a walking talking advertisement for population control
#20
Fools, you should always switch.

On the first choice, choosing a wrong box is twice more likely. So once he removes the other wrong box, then when you switch, you'll get the right one. The chances that you chose the right box in the first place are less.
#22
Quote by rizo299
Well look at it this way.

Two thirds of the time the first box you choose will be empty. That means that the box remaining on the table will be the box containing the ring two thirds of the time.


If you picked up the box with the ring in the first time, then of course you should stick, but you wouldn't know that you had it. And its far more likely that the ring is the box left on the table. Therefore if you switch, two out of three times, you'll get the ring.


your theory is still wrong.

there will always be 1 wrong box removed.
so you always have 50% chance of getting it right/wrong


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#23
Quote by chubbychunks
Fools, you should always switch.

On the first choice, choosing a wrong box is twice more likely. So once he removes the other wrong box, then when you switch, you'll get the right one. The chances that you chose the right box in the first place are less.


dammit! I was about to say this!
#25
Quote by skagitup
You should always switch.

Think about it.


OOOh!!! I get it now.
Quote by Godzilla1969
I love you, Muphin. You have great taste in music.

Quote by Pacifica112J
Muphin > You

The Cooperation
#27
box d ftw
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#28
Quote by noxiosimitator
your theory is still wrong.

there will always be 1 wrong box removed.
so you always have 50% chance of getting it right/wrong


Its not a theory! Its mathematical fact!



Right one more time. Read it carefully, I promise you its right.

you have a 66.6666% chance of picking an empty box first right?


That means that 66.6666% of the time I'm forced to leave the box with the ring in on the table when i remove an empty box.

therefore, 66.6666% of the time, if you switch, you'll win.

where as if you stick you'll only win 33.3333% of the time
Last edited by rizo299 at Oct 14, 2007,
#31
Ah, the old Monty Hall problem. Haven't seen it in a while.
<Han> I love Hitler
#33
It took me a while to work it out, but yeah it is right :P

I never believe stuff like this straight off, for some reason I always have to work it out for myself lol
#34
Not this again... The first choice doesn't matter. You can choose any box you want to, god dammit. It's not a 67% chance to win if you switch. This is stupid.

That means that 66.6666% of the time I'm forced to leave the box with the ring in on the table when i remove an empty box.

No, you're forced to leave the box with the ring 100% of the times because you can't take the box with the ring off no matter what I pick.
I'm a communist. Really.
Last edited by Raziel2p at Oct 14, 2007,
#35
Quote by Raziel2p
Not this again... The first choice doesn't matter. You can choose any box you want to, god dammit. It's not a 67% chance to win if you switch. This is stupid.


No, you're forced to leave the box with the ring 100% of the times because you can't take the box with the ring off no matter what I pick.



You've mistaken the way i was explaining it.


If you pick the ring box, then i can choose either of the empty, but most of the time I am forced to leave the ring on the table. Thats all i meant, i was just simplifying it.
#36
1- so what?
2- wheres my ring?
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#38
At first I was all "wtf, lol"

But then I read the thread and stuff and now I'm all "Oh, I see what you did there."

True story.
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#39
Box Q

I win.

Anyway, the logic is flawed, you shouldn't ALWAYS switch. Because always switching means you get it wrong at some point. Maybe even more often than you get it right.

Being telepathic, or choosing box Q, is by far the best option to go for.
Last edited by Virgil_Hart05 at Oct 14, 2007,
#40
Quote by rizo299
Right I'll explain it another way.

you have a 66.6666% chance of picking an empty box first right?


That means that 66.6666% of the time I'm forced to leave the box with the ring in on the table

therefore, 66.6666% of the time, if you switch, you'll win.

where as if you stick you'll only win 33.3333% of the time


No, cause if you switch, you've still only picked on box. Still meaning it's 1/3 of the time.
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