#1
So, I've got a hypothetical situation and I'd like some input on what exactly would happen.

Let's say that the Unites States maintains a presence in Iraq for the next few years. Eventually, the conflict spills over into Iran and Syria as well, and Islamic militants form a powerful theocratic state from the rubble of these three countries. As part of their plan to bring about the downfall of Western capitalism, they cut off all oil exports to the United States. The United States has not yet begun to take any major steps towards more reliable energy sources, and is still dependent on foreign oil.

If we weren't getting any oil from Iraq, Iran, or Syria, would there be an energy crisis in the US? How severe would it be? How do you think the United States and other countries would react to this turn of events?

I don't believe this is actually going to happen, nor am I trying to make a political statement. If you must know, it's for a role-playing game.
#4
Quote by HoldFastHope
I don't believe this is actually going to happen, nor am I trying to make a political statement. If you must know, it's for a role-playing game.


Back in my days we used to pretend we were doctors and they were sexy nurses, or naughty schoolgirls.

Oh how times have changed.
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#5
The western civilization is getting closer and closer to collapsing and when it happens well all move back to farming but the change will take many many years to get used to


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#6
I guess the middle east relies on the export of oil, however, if there was an energy crisis, it would be a huge culture shock.
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#7
"As part of their plan to bring about the downfall of Western capitalism"

Seems like you know quite a bit about middle eastern countries.
#8
Quote by Fik0n
"As part of their plan to bring about the downfall of Western capitalism"

Seems like you know quite a bit about middle eastern countries.


I'm not suggesting that these countries are universally anti-America. I already said this is fictional. I'm pretty sure Al-Qaeda are not huge fans of Western capitalism, though, and the fictional state I am talking about would have a government composed entirely of Al-Qaeda leaders.
#9
I think Russia will be very happy then
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#10
We have enough oil underneath our very soil to last over 100 years, and that's not counting the off-shore stuff and the oil shale. We are just not allowed to drill it because people are being faggots.

Once this damn liberal majority is over with we will not need to worry about being dependant on foreign oil. Basically we are only using there stuff now so that when they run out over there we will still have plenty of our own to live off of.

Besides, the Middle East would not form such a coalition. First off, they are too backwards to muster such a truce. They all hate each other more than they hate U.S, because while they don't really completely understand why the U.S. is there, they do understand that the guy across the street worships Allah in a different way, and that makes him the priority enemy.

Not only that, but they pretty much need our business because otherwise they have nothing to export. They are a theocratic, sectarian bunch of savages who need to get their shit together and read our Constitution rather than hating on each other all the time. Without oil they have nothing good to export, they lucked out by starting their civilization there. We need to worry about the enemies in our own country, ie neo-Marxist Super-liberals, Environmentalist fascists, etc before we worry about the nations of Islam forming a coalition against capitalism.

Capitalism is the only rational economic policy and as long as there are rational men willing to defend it, it cannot be defeated.
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#11
I'm just going to assume the poster above me is ignorant, a troll, or both.


Quote by HoldFastHope
So, I've got a hypothetical situation and I'd like some input on what exactly would happen.

Let's say that the Unites States maintains a presence in Iraq for the next few years. Eventually, the conflict spills over into Iran and Syria as well, and Islamic militants form a powerful theocratic state from the rubble of these three countries. As part of their plan to bring about the downfall of Western capitalism, they cut off all oil exports to the United States. The United States has not yet begun to take any major steps towards more reliable energy sources, and is still dependent on foreign oil.

If we weren't getting any oil from Iraq, Iran, or Syria, would there be an energy crisis in the US? How severe would it be? How do you think the United States and other countries would react to this turn of events?

I don't believe this is actually going to happen, nor am I trying to make a political statement. If you must know, it's for a role-playing game.


Any strong coalition between Iran, Syria and Iraq would be extremely unlikely. A unified theocratic state formed by all three? I don't see any chance of that happening. Different religious sects, different secular and religious political movements, different ethnicities, and plenty of long-standing animosity between and within these states makes this an incredibly far-fetched situation.

Even if this convoluted amalgamation somehow came into being, I don't know why its leaders would be working towards the downfall of "Western capitalism". Doesn't make any sense.

The US imposed a trade embargo on Syria and doesn't purchase oil from them. Syria doesn't really have that much oil anyways. Iran and Iraq have much larger reserves, but Iran needs to sell to someone to keep the money flowing in. It doesn't seem likely that OPEC would agree to another oil embargo unless circumstances changed greatly.

This is for a role-playing game? What type of game is this? It doesn't sound like the person who devised this scenario has a good grasp of Middle Eastern history.
#12
98% of america's oil imports are from Canada.
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#13
I think the United States actually has enough oil reserved to last 100 years... thats what Ive heard anyways. It may not be 100 years, but it will last a good long time.

But we get most our oil from Canada/Alaska.... however I bet prices would go waaaaay up.
#14
Quote by HoldFastHope
As part of their plan to bring about the downfall of Western capitalism, they cut off all oil exports to the United States.
How do you think the United States and other countries would react to this turn of events?
First of all, how would the exporting oil countries cope without America buying thier oil? Would Russia, China, and India buy more to build up on reserves or would the exporting countries just wind up with excessive stockpiles of oil?
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#15
Quote by DSchmitty
98% of america's oil imports are from Canada.


Nope, see section below.


Quote by aaronob
I think the United States actually has enough oil reserved to last 100 years... thats what Ive heard anyways. It may not be 100 years, but it will last a good long time.

But we get most our oil from Canada/Alaska.... however I bet prices would go waaaaay up.


Just from quick googling (I'm tired)....

United States — Oil - Consumption: 20.73 million bbl/day (2004 est.)

United States — Oil - Reserves: 21 billion barrels (2007 data)

United States — Oil - Reserve Life: 11 years (2007 data)

United States — Oil - Imports: 10,031,000 bbl/day

United States — Oil - Dependence on Imports: 58.2%


US Imports by Country of Origin

For 2007, our Top 10 importers of crude oil into the U.S. in million barrels were:

1. Canada 680.533 million barrels
2. Saudi Arabia 530.245
3. Mexico 514.48
4. Venezuela 419.841
5. Nigeria 394.856
6. Angola 181.215
7. Iraq 177.009
8. Algeria 161.755
9. Ecuador 72.138
10. Kuwait 64.306



The US has about 4.5% of the world's population yet it consumes around 26% of the World's oil production. I think we also consume 80% or so of the world's opiates, so theres something else to work on

We do get most of our oil from Canada, but our appetite is so voracious that a reduction in imports from other countries would still be damaging to the economy.

I don't know where this 100 year figure is coming from for how long the US can sustain itself on its reserves alone. There is the possibility that there is some huge untapped reservoir of oil we haven't discovered yet, but just hoping and wishing isn't going to make it true. Our consumption keeps rising too, not helping matters.


Quote by americablanco
First of all, how would the exporting oil countries cope without America buying thier oil? Would Russia, China, and India buy more to build up on reserves or would the exporting countries just wind up with excessive stockpiles of oil?


Large oil exporters aren't too worried about demand for their oil running out. If several countries stopped selling to America for some reason you would probably just see some opportunists stepping in to fill the gap while the trade balance shifts to accommodate the changes. China's hunger for oil is rising rapidly as it is, so they would be all too happy to buy more of existing production seeing as exporters aren't keen to ramp up production levels further anyways (takes money and time).
#16
^Hm. 11 years isnt too bad. Itd be plenty of time to transfer over to an alternative source of energy if everyone just agreed and got it done.
#17
^well finding the source is one thing, but actually implementing the change throughout the country would take much longer. i suppose it could happen considering that as the alternative source is switched to, the reserve life is extended.


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#18
Brazil's 100% energy independent I believe and half the time it seems to me like they either have massive concerts to attend or topless parades throughout their streets...

Are we less organized than that, really?